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The dynamics of cooperation and conflict in Azerbaijan’s relations with the United States and Russia

  • 12 January 2026
  • 1890
The dynamics of cooperation and conflict in Azerbaijan’s relations with the United States and Russia

Introduction

The topic of this study is of particular relevance given the evolving geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus and the growing strategic competition between major powers. Azerbaijan’s relations with the United States and Russia represent a critical case for understanding how small and medium-sized states navigate cooperation and conflict amid shifting global power dynamics. In recent years, developments such as the Russia-Ukraine war, changing energy security priorities, the reconfiguration of regional transport corridors, and renewed peace initiatives in the South Caucasus have significantly altered the context of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy. These transformations have intensified both opportunities for cooperation and sources of tension in Baku’s relations with Washington and Moscow, making a systematic analysis timely and necessary.

This topic has been selected because Azerbaijan’s multi-vector foreign policy provides an illustrative example of strategic balancing between competing global and regional actors. Unlike traditional alliance-based approaches, Azerbaijan seeks to maintain constructive relations with both the United States and Russia while preserving strategic autonomy and safeguarding national interests. Examining the dynamics of cooperation and conflict in these bilateral relationships allows for a deeper understanding of how pragmatic diplomacy functions in practice under conditions of geopolitical rivalry. Furthermore, the limited comparative literature that simultaneously addresses Azerbaijan-U.S. and Azerbaijan-Russia relations creates a clear research gap, which this study aims to address.

The academic and practical significance of the topic also lies in its broader implications for regional stability and international relations theory. By analyzing Azerbaijan’s foreign policy behavior, the study contributes to debates on balance-of-power politics, small-state strategies, and multi-vector diplomacy in a multipolar international system. At the same time, the findings may offer policy-relevant insights for states facing similar geopolitical constraints, particularly in regions where great-power competition intersects with post-conflict reconstruction and security challenges.

Azerbaijan’s balancing between the United States and Russia

Since the restoration of independence, Azerbaijan’s relations with both the United States and Russia have acquired strategic significance, albeit for different and sometimes competing reasons. Azerbaijan has pursued a differentiated yet interconnected approach toward both powers, seeking to balance strategic partnership with the United States against a cautious and pragmatic engagement with Russia in order to safeguard its national interests and maintain room for maneuver in a contested regional environment.

A comparative examination of Azerbaijan’s relations with the United States and Russia reveals not only distinct patterns of cooperation and conflict, but also the structural constraints and strategic calculations that shape Azerbaijan’s multi-vector foreign policy. Although both relationships are strategically important, they differ fundamentally in terms of strategic leverage, economic engagement, security implications, and political trade-offs, compelling Azerbaijan to adopt differentiated and carefully calibrated approaches toward each actor.

From the perspective of strategic leverage, the United States exerts influence primarily through global political authority, economic power, and its central role in shaping international norms and institutions. [3: 356] Engagement with Washington enhances Azerbaijan’s international legitimacy, facilitates access to Western markets, and strengthens its position within transatlantic energy and security frameworks. However, U.S. leverage is largely indirect and conditional, relying on diplomatic pressure, policy incentives, and normative expectations rather than immediate coercive capabilities. In contrast, Russia’s strategic leverage over Azerbaijan is more direct and regionally embedded, stemming from geographic proximity, historical ties, military presence, and its ability to influence security dynamics in the South Caucasus. [4: 187] This asymmetry means that while U.S. influence is broader and long-term in nature, Russian leverage is more immediate and situational, posing acute risks during periods of heightened regional tension.

Economic opportunities further differentiate the two relationships. Cooperation with the United States has been instrumental in integrating Azerbaijan into global energy markets and supporting major infrastructure projects that connect the Caspian region to Europe. [2]  These partnerships offer long-term economic diversification, investment, and access to advanced technologies, particularly in the energy and transport sectors. At the same time, economic ties with the U.S. remain largely project-based and market-driven, lacking the depth of everyday interdependence. By contrast, Azerbaijan’s economic relations with Russia are characterized by closer trade links, shared infrastructure, and participation in regional transport corridors. [8: 549] [11] While this interdependence provides short-term economic stability and logistical advantages, it also increases Azerbaijan’s exposure to economic pressure and political conditionality, especially during periods of bilateral strain.

Security considerations represent one of the most sensitive dimensions of Azerbaijan’s balancing strategy. Cooperation with the United States contributes to Azerbaijan’s security through defense dialogue, peacekeeping experience, and broader alignment with Western security practices, yet it stops short of formal security guarantees. [9: 3057] Consequently, U.S.–Azerbaijan security cooperation enhances capacity and international standing but does not eliminate regional security vulnerabilities. Russia, on the other hand, remains a central security actor in the South Caucasus, capable of shaping outcomes through military presence, arms supplies, and mediation roles. [7] [6] [1] While engagement with Russia can contribute to short-term stability and crisis management, it simultaneously creates risks related to dependency, asymmetric influence, and the potential use of security instruments as tools of political leverage.

These differences generate significant political and strategic trade-offs for Azerbaijan. Closer alignment with the United States risks provoking friction with Russia and exposing Azerbaijan to external pressure related to governance and foreign policy alignment. [10] [5] Conversely, excessive reliance on Russia may undermine Azerbaijan’s strategic autonomy, limit its room for maneuver in relations with Western partners, and entrench regional dependency structures. As a result, Azerbaijan’s multi-vector foreign policy emerges not as a neutral or symbolic stance, but as an active strategy of risk management and strategic hedging, aimed at maximizing benefits from both relationships while preventing overdependence on either power.

Overall, the comparison demonstrates that Azerbaijan’s engagement with the United States and Russia is shaped by differentiated cost–benefit calculations rather than ideological alignment. By selectively cooperating in economic, political, and security domains while maintaining strategic distance where necessary, Azerbaijan seeks to preserve autonomy, enhance resilience, and adapt to the realities of an increasingly multipolar international system. This dynamic balancing process constitutes the core of Azerbaijan’s multi-vector strategy and explains both its durability and its inherent limitations.

Conclusion

Azerbaijan’s relations with the United States and Russia are best understood through the lens of strategic balancing rather than alignment or rivalry in a classical sense. The analysis confirms that cooperation and conflict coexist in both bilateral relationships, shaped by asymmetric power relations, divergent strategic interests, and the evolving geopolitical context of the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan’s multi-vector foreign policy emerges as a rational and adaptive response to these conditions, enabling the country to pursue national interests, preserve strategic autonomy, and mitigate external risks in an increasingly multipolar international system.

The comparative assessment shows that while the United States and Russia differ significantly in terms of leverage, modes of influence, and policy instruments, both remain indispensable actors for Azerbaijan. Engagement with the United States provides long-term benefits related to international legitimacy, energy security, and integration into global economic and political frameworks, yet lacks firm security guarantees and is often constrained by normative conditionality. Conversely, relations with Russia are characterized by immediate security relevance and deep regional embeddedness, offering short-term stability and practical cooperation, but also generating vulnerabilities linked to dependency and asymmetric influence. Azerbaijan’s foreign policy strategy, therefore, is not a passive balancing act but an active process of hedging, selective cooperation, and risk management.

Beyond summarizing existing dynamics, the findings of this article suggest several broader analytical implications. First, Azerbaijan’s experience challenges binary approaches that frame small and medium-sized states as either aligned with or subordinated to great powers. Instead, it illustrates how pragmatic diplomacy can expand strategic space even under structural constraints. Second, the case underscores the importance of issue-based diplomacy, where cooperation is compartmentalized across economic, security, and political domains to prevent spillover effects from destabilizing the overall relationship. Third, the durability of Azerbaijan’s multi-vector policy indicates that strategic autonomy is not solely a function of power capabilities, but also of diplomatic flexibility, timing, and the ability to leverage geopolitical competition.

Looking forward, the sustainability of Azerbaijan’s balancing strategy will increasingly depend on its capacity to diversify partnerships, strengthen domestic economic and institutional resilience, and adapt to shifts in global power competition. As regional transport corridors, post-conflict reconstruction, and energy transition dynamics gain prominence, Azerbaijan may transform its multi-vector policy from a defensive balancing mechanism into a more proactive agenda-setting strategy. In this sense, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy offers not only a case study of cooperation and conflict management, but also a potential model for other states navigating complex geopolitical environments marked by great-power rivalry and regional uncertainty.

References

  1. Abbasova, A. (2021). Assessing the Performance of Russia's Peacekeeping Forces in the Karabakh Region of Azerbaijan. Caucasus Strategic Perspectives, 2(1), 78–80.
  2. ADA University. (2020, December 12). Reassessing US-Azerbaijani Relations. Baku Dialogues. https://bakudialogues.ada.edu.az/articles/reassessing-us-azerbaijani-relations-12-12-2020
  3. Azərbaycanın Xarici Siyasətinin Əsas İstiqamətləri (1991–2016). (2017). Bakı: Azərbaycan Respublikasının Prezidenti yanında Strateji Araşdırmalar Mərkəzi, “Poliart” MMC.
  4. Gasımov, M. (2001–2002). Rusyanın Azerbaycan Politikası. Avrasya Dosyası, 7(4).
  5. Geopolitical Monitor. (2025, August). Trump Armenia–Azerbaijan Deal: Eroding Russia's Influence in the South Caucasus. Retrieved from https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/trump-armenia-azerbaijan-deal-eroding-russias-influence-in-the-south-caucasus/
  6. Huseynov, V. (2021). Azerbaijan Increasingly Critical of Russia's Peacekeeping Mission in Karabakh. Aircenter.az. https://aircenter.az/en/single/azerbaijan-increasingly-critical-of-russias-peacekeeping-mission-in-karabakh-788
  7. Kucera, J. (2022). Russian Peacekeepers in Karabakh under Harsh Spotlight. Eurasianet. https://eurasianet.org/russian-peacekeepers-in-karabakh-under-harsh-spotlight
  8. Musa, İ. (2011). Azərbaycanın Xarici Siyasəti (Üçüncü hissə). Bakı: Bakı Universiteti Nəşriyyatı.
  9. Öztarsu, M. F. (2019). A Pragmatic Policy Case: US-Azerbaijan Relations. Manas Journal of Social Studies, 8(3).
  10. Reuters. (2025, August). Trump announces peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-announces-peace-agreement-between-azerbaijan-armenia-2025-08-08/
  11. Trading Economics. (n.d.). Azerbaijan Imports. https://tradingeconomics.com/azerbaijan/imports

Elmar Ismayilzada received his bachelor's and master's degrees in International Relations from Baku State University. Since 2022, he has been pursuing doctoral studies in International Relations at the Azerbaijan University of Tourism and Management. His research areas include peace and conflict studies, as well as the foreign policy of European states.

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